Ntuj Roj Hmab Kev Lag Luam Qhov Teeb Meem thiab Yav Tom Ntej Outlook hauv 2024 hauv Suav teb
Ib. Ntuj Roj Hmab Ntau Lawm hauv 2024 hauv Suav teb
(1) Kev tsim khoom tag nrho yog qhov zoo
Xyoo 2024, kuv lub teb chaws qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov roj hmab tsim tau zoo feem ntau, nrog kev hloov pauv ntau dua hauv kev tsim cov suab paj nruag piv rau xyoo dhau los, thiab kev tsim khoom loj zuj zus thaum lub caij ncov. Kab tsuag thiab kab mob kev puas tsuaj yog ib qho teeb meem thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, nthuav tawm cov yam ntxwv ntawm lub caij nyoog. Powdery mildew tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam tseem ceeb, cuam tshuam rau thaj tsam tshaj 13 lab mu (1 mu ≈ 666.7 m2). Anthracnose, kab mob monsoon defoliation, thiab tapping vaj huam sib luag dryness tshwm sim hauv zos. Kab kab kab yog cov kab laug sab mites thiab bark beetles, feem ntau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv qis qis, nrog sporadic tshwm sim ntawm cov kab kab thiab thaj chaw nruab nrab tshwm sim ntawm slugs, muaj kev txwv tsis pub muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv roj hmab ntuj. Cov kab mob hauv paus thiab bark necrosis nyob rau hauv thib ob thiab thib peb - tiam roj hmab cog tau pom muaj kev nce siab. Xyoo 2024, thaj tsam Pacific Rim yog nyob rau theem tom qab ntawm La Niña-El Niño lub voj voog, nrog kev hloov pauv huab cua loj heev. Cov dej nag hauv Suav teb cov chaw tsim khoom roj hmab tseem ceeb yog siab dua qhov nruab nrab, thiab qhov cuam tshuam ntawm huab cua huab cua xws li typhoons thiab dej nyab hnyav dua li xyoo dhau los.
(2).Production ncav cuag keeb kwm siab
Hauv xyoo 2024, txhawb nqa los ntawm tsoomfwv txoj cai txhawb nqa txuas ntxiv thiab kev ruaj khov thiab rov qab los ntawm cov nqi roj hmab, cov neeg ua liaj ua teb cov roj hmab kev txaus siab tau nce ntxiv. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tsim tawm, kuv lub teb chaws cov roj hmab qhuav qhuav tau nce mus txog keeb kwm siab ntawm 922,000 tons, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 2.75%. Los ntawm thaj chaw tsim khoom, Yunnan Xeev qhov xwm txheej tsim khoom feem ntau yog qhov qub, nrog rau kev tsim khoom pib tsis hloov pauv xyoo dhau los, ncav cuag 531,000 tons ntawm roj hmab qhuav; Hainan xeev cov nroog tsim khoom tseem ceeb (cov nroog) hauv thaj tsam nruab nrab thiab sab hnub poob, xws li Baisha thiab Qiongzhong, tsis tshua muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm typhoons, thiab kev rov qab los ntawm cov nqi roj hmab tau ua rau muaj kev txhawb nqa tapping ntau lawm, uas ua rau me ntsis nce xyoo ntau lawm piv rau xyoo dhau los, nce mus txog 377,000 tons; Lub xeev Guangdong, vim muaj dej nag ntau heev thaum lub caij los nag thiab qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Super Typhoon "Magee," tau pom 21.6% xyoo-rau- xyoo txo cov hnub tapping, uas ua rau poob ntawm cov roj hmab ntuj rau 14,000 tons.
(3) Qhov chaw cog qoob loo tseem nyob ruaj khov nrog kev txo qis me ntsis
Feem ntau yog vim muaj kev puas tsuaj rau cov nroj tsuag roj hmab uas tshwm sim los ntawm Typhoon "Magee," kuv lub teb chaws thaj chaw cog roj hmab tau poob qis me ntsis. Raws li kev teem caij tsim khoom, thaj chaw cog rau xyoo 2024 yog 16.8 lab mu, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo txo ntawm 0.8%. Ntawm no, Yunnan suav txog 8.48 lab mu, Hainan 7.62 lab mu, thiab Guangdong 700,000 mu. Lub teb chaws tapping cheeb tsam yog 12.21 lab mu, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 2.0%. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm Lub Koom Haum ntawm Lub Tebchaws Roj Hmab Cov Tebchaws (ANRPC), xyoo 2024, kuv lub teb chaws cov roj hmab cog qoob loo nyob rau qib 4 hauv ntiaj teb, tom qab Thaib teb, Indonesia, thiab Malaysia; thiab nws thaj chaw tapping yog 3rd thoob ntiaj teb, tom qab Thaib thiab Indonesia.
Natural Rubber Trade Situation nyob rau hauv 2024 hauv Suav teb
(I) Txo cov kev ntshuam thiab nce nqi ntawm cov roj hmab ntuj
Xyoo 2024, kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom siv roj hmab tuaj yeem poob qis, nce mus txog qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 2021, thaum tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm ntshuam nce ntxiv.
Raws li kev lis kev cai txheeb cais, tag nrho cov ntim ntim rau lub xyoo yog 5.6589 lab tons (cov ntaub ntawv latex tsis hloov mus rau qhov hnyav qhuav), nrog rau tag nrho cov nqi ntshuam ntawm US $ 9.687 billion; tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm yog 83,900 tons, nrog rau tag nrho cov nqi xa tawm ntawm US $ 219 lab, ua rau kev lag luam tsis txaus ntawm US $ 9.468 billion. Tshwj xeeb, kev xa khoom ntawm cov roj hmab ntuj muaj li 2.3923 lab tons, ib xyoos - ntawm- xyoo poob ntawm 12.39%, nrog rau tus nqi ntshuam ntawm US $ 3.956 billion, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 10.77%, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm US $ 1653 ib xyoo. xyoo-ntawm-xyoo nce ntawm 26.45%; ntshuam ntawm cov roj hmab sib xyaw muaj li ntawm 3.2133 lab tons, ib xyoos-ntawm-xyoo txo ntawm 13.22%, nrog rau tus nqi ntshuam ntawm US $ 5.422 billion, ib xyoos-ntawm-xyoo nce ntawm 5.96%, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm US $ 1687.37/ton xyoo-ntawm-xyoo nce ntawm 22.27%; Kev xa khoom ntawm cov roj hmab sib xyaw tau nce me ntsis piv rau xyoo dhau los, nrog rau qhov ntim ntawm 53,300 tons, ib xyoos - ntawm- xyoo nce ntawm 2.05%, thiab tus nqi ntshuam ntawm US $ 308 lab, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 2.68%.
(II) Cov Chaw Ntxim Ntxim Ua
Xyoo 2024, tsib lub teb chaws uas muab cov roj hmab ntuj rau kuv lub tebchaws yog Thaib, Nyab Laj, Malaysia, Myanmar, thiab Côte d'Ivoire, suav txog 89.1% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj (Table 1). Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, kev ncig thiab txais cov roj hmab ntuj los ntawm teb chaws Africa hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev tau nce zuj zus, thiab kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom siv roj hmab los ntawm Côte d'Ivoire kuj tseem nce ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, xyoo 2024, vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm EUDR txoj cai, ntau cov roj hmab ntuj los ntawm Côte d'Ivoire tau raug xa tawm mus rau EU kev ua lag luam, thiab thawj zaug, kuv lub teb chaws tag nrho cov khoom siv roj hmab los ntawm Myanmar tau dhau los ntawm Côte d'Ivoire.
