Polyurethane Kev Lag Luam Hloov Kho - raws li lub Yim Hli 3, 2026
Cov lus piav qhia tam sim no thoob plaws ntiaj teb polyurethane (PU) sector tuaj yeem sau los ntawm plaub lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb:Kev sib koom ua ke ntawm tus nqi nce siab los ntawm lub ntiaj teb oligopolies nce toj, kev hloov pauv kev muaj peev xwm mus rau Asia thiab Middle East, thiab cov kev xav tau qis qis mus rau TPU, lub zog tshiab, thiab kev siv hluav taws xob cua.
1. MDI/TDI Saib Cov Nqi Them Nqi Hikes; Txhua hli Tau Txais Tshaj 10%
Txij thaum Lub Xya Hli mus txog rau thaum Lub Yim Hli, Wanhua, BASF, thiab Huntsman tau siv synchronized thoob ntiaj teb kev hloov kho tus nqi:
Tuam Tshoj domestic daim ntawv teev nqi:Huntsman Shanghai teem nws lub Yim Hli Ntuj polymeric MDI daim ntawv teev nqi ntawmRMB 19,500/ton (+ RMB 1,500); BASF Shanghai tau tsa nws lub Yim Hli TDI daim ntawv teev nqi rauRMB 19,000/ton (+ RMB 1,000).
Spot Market:Raws li lub Xya Hli 31, tus nqi ntsuas rau polymeric MDI sawv ntawm kwv yees liRMB 17, 866/ton, nce10.29% IBthiab roughly15.9% Yog. Mos ua npuas ncauj polyether hauv Shandong pauv ntawm RMB 9,400-9,600 / tuj, taug qab cov khoom noj khoom haus ntau dua.
Tus nqi txawv teb chaws:Wanhua nqa MDI / TDI tus nqi hauv cov teb chaws Asia los ntawmUSD 200/ton; Huntsman tsa MDI tus nqi hauv Tebchaws Europe, Africa, thiab Middle East los ntawmEUR 250/tonpib lub Yim Hli 1, nrog rau qhov ntxivUSD 300/tontaug kev mus rau Is Nrias teb thiab lub subcontinent dav.
Nkag mus rau hauv qab - dhau:Thawj TPU cov neeg tsim khoom Miracll Chemicals tshaj tawm ib daim pamRMB 1,000/ton ncerau tag nrho cov qib TPU; Adhesive manufacturers ua raws li 3% -5% mus ncig ua si.
Cov tsav tsheb:Kev txhawb nqa logistics thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob txuas nrog Middle East geopolitical tensions; concentrated thoob ntiaj teb cog turnarounds nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj-Lub yim hli ntuj (xws li Wanhua 400 kt / ib MDI thiab 250 kt / ib TDI units nyob rau hauv Hungary, Yantai's 1.1 Mt / ib MDI kab, NPU's Ruian chaw, thiab BASF's US kev khiav hauj lwm); thiab tsis tu ncua rationalization ntawm aging txawv teb chaws muaj peev xwm.
2. Muaj peev xwm nthuav tawm rau lub voj voog: Retrenchment hauv Europe, Kev Loj Hlob hauv Tuam Tshoj & Middle East
Thaum lub peev xwm muaj peev xwm nthuav dav dav, daim ntawv qhia khoom noj thoob ntiaj teb tau rov ua dua:
Covestro ( tshaj tawm Lub Rau Hli 30):Npaj ib qho tshiab660 kt / MDI cog ntawm nws qhov chaw Caojing hauv Shanghai, lub hom phiaj ua ntej -2030 pib- nce thiab siv nws cov txheej txheem qis carbon AdiP. Ib qho kev tshawb fawb txog kev ua tau zoo sib xws tab tom tab tom ua rau qhov chaw zoo sib xws hauv qhovUAE. Yog tias pom tau, Covestro tag nrho cov peev txheej MDI yuav nce los ntawm 1.77 Mt / a mus rau ~ 3.09 Mt / a- dhau BASF los ua lub ntiaj teb thib ob - cov neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws.
Wanhua Chemical:Nws800 kt / ib chav MDI hauv Fujian rov pib ua haujlwm thaum Lub Xya Hli 31tom qab 38-hnub lub sijhawm saib xyuas. Tom qab debottlenecking, Wanhua lub peev xwm MDI tag nrho tam sim no sawv ntawm kwv yees4.5 Mt/ib, nqa nws cov lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tshaj li 40%. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov pab pawg tau tso cov khoom siv roj teeb (LFP cathode) ua tus ncej loj thib ob, cog lus RMB 5.32 billion nrog rau Xingfa Group kom ruaj ntseg cov peev txheej sab saud.
European kev txhawb nqa:BASF, Covestro, thiab Huntsman npaj yuav kaw700-1,100 kt / a ntawm MDI muaj peev xwmthoob plaws teb chaws Europe thaum 2026-2027-sib npaug rau38% -49% ntawm lub regional nameplate muaj peev xwm- tau tsav los ntawm kev lag luam tsis zoo ntawm lub zog thiab cov nqi carbon nce.
3. Cov ntsiab lus hauv qab & Daim ntawv thov tseem ceeb
Foshan Sanshui:Ib tug tshiab500 kt / ib PU industrial puagtawg hauv av nyob rau hauv lub zos New Materials Industrial Park; Huateng Polymer txoj kev sib koom ua ke TPU tau nkag mus rau theem kev tshuaj xyuas ib puag ncig.
TPU kev nkag mus rau cov neeg siv khoom:MINIMAL WORKS launched inflatable tents thav ntawv siv TPU zais zis; Miracll tus nqi nce siab tau lees paub tus nqi muaj zog- dhau- los ntawm hauv ntu TPU.
Lub zog hluav taws xob:Covestro tseem txhawb nqa nwsnqus tsev{0}}infusion polyurethane resin systemRaws li ib qho kev xaiv epoxy, thov10% -30% nce hauv kev ua haujlwm txhua yam.
Kev hais plaub hloov tshiab: BASF thiab Covestro tau mus txog kev sib hais haum hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev sib hais plaub hauv ntau cheeb tsam hais txog qhov raug liam tias MDI / TDI tus nqi- kho hauv Pennsylvania (BASF: USD 3 lab; Covestro: USD 7 lab), tau txais kev pom zoo ua ntej lub tsev hais plaub thaum Lub Xya Hli 23. Txoj kev loj hlob muaj kev txwv tab sis cuam tshuam me ntsis rau kev lag luam profile.
4. Kev Lag Luam Outlook (Kev Pom Zoo Pom Zoo)
Lub yim hli ntuj turnarounds yuav txhawb nqa ceev ceev kom muaj, underpinning MDI/TDI daim ntawv teev nqi.
Nrog rau lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws los txog rau lub Cuaj Hli (cov rooj tog zaum, cov tub yees / lub freezers, cov khau ib leeg elastomers, thiab TPU restocking), polymeric MDI tuaj yeem kuaj.RMB 19,000–19,500/tonyog tias cov ntawv txiav txim qis qis tuav.
Cov kev pheej hmoo tseem ceeb muaj xws li: txo qis kev thauj mus los hauv Middle East, tag nrho - cov khoom lag luam tawm los ntawm Wanhua's Fujian complex cuam tshuam rau cov lag luam lag luam, thiab ua rau muaj kev poob qis tom qab cov khoom lag luam poob qis.